BRIU
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How the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) fluctuates across the states

Data released by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that average price paid by consumers for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly referred to as petrol, decreased by 15.8 per cent Year-on-Year(YoY) and 0.3 per centMonth-on-month (MoM) to N145.30 in February 2019 from N145.70 in January 2019. Similarly, the average price of crude oil dropped in December 2018 by 13.10 per cent from$8.26/ barrel (bbl) to $54.77/bblMoM which is the lowest since October 2017 according to theNigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)financial operation report 2018.

The fall in the price of PMS is a consequence of the fall in price of crude oil from $85/bbl to $80/bbl. This drop in price could also be attributed to the apprehension over unpredicted rise in global oil supply.

States with the highest average price of PMS

                                  Source: NBS, BRIU

According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data on prices of PMS across the 36 States in Nigeria which was carefully compile by BusinessDay Research and Intelligence unit (BRIU) result show that the top ten states with highest average of PMS price are: Taraba, Plateau, Oyo, Benue, Kaduna, Abia Borno, Osun, Ondo and Ebony state. Taraba state recorded the highest average price of N150.55 per litre which accounts for 25.21 per cent and 0.37 per centdecline on YoY and MoM respectively. In the preceding quarter, Taraba state consistently had the highest average PMS Price, even as it was priced at an average N150.27 and N150.00 in December 2018and January 2019 respectively.

On the other hand, Plateau state immediately trailed Taraba with an average PMS price of N146.55 with of 16.04 per cent decrease YoY and 0.09 per cent decrease MoMin February 2019.Closely followed isOyo state with highest average PMS price of N146.50 with 11.21 per cent decrease YoY and 2.66 per cent decrease MoM in February 2019.

States with the lowest average price of PMS

                                 

 Conversely, the states with lowest average price in February 2019 are: Ekiti, Imo and Ogun state. The average PMS price ofEkiti amounted to N143.47with percentage decrease of 20.81 and 0.37 per cent on YoY and MoM respectively. Imo state recorded an average PMS Price of N143.18 and percentage decline of 28.70 per cent YoY bases and a decrease of 1.67 per cent MoM. Ogun state is the lowest in this category with its average PMS Price amounting to N143.18 with a YoY percentage decline of 2.72 per cent and 0.96 per cent MoM.

Regional distribution of PMS prices

In North West (NW),average price of PMS amounts to N145.41, while Kaduna state recorded the highest price of N146.08 while Kano and Katsina both had with the lowest price of N145.00.

In the North East (NE), Taraba had the highest price of PMS which amounted to N150.55 and Adamawa, N143.78 which accounted for the lowest in that region. (NW)recorded an average price of N145.74 in February 2019.

North Central (NC) recorded an average price of N145.53, amid the seven states that make up the North Central. Plateau state paid more for PMS at N146.55 and Abuja paidN144.50 which is the lowest in that region.  The average price of PMS in

South West (SW), South – South (SS) and South East (SE) are N144.90, N145.09 and N144.98 respectively.

Global trend in crude oil production

According to NNPC report on Monthly financial operation, the global oil demand forecast is extrapolated to grow at 1.50 million per barrel(mbbl/d) to an average 98.78 mbbl/d in 2018 and 1.29 mbbl/d to an average 100.08 mbbl/d in 2019.

In 2018, Non-OPEC oil supply growth is appraised at 2.61mbbl/d to average 62.06 mbbl/d. This is an upward revision of 0.05 mbbl/d from assessment in the previous month which was at an average of 60.03 mbbl/d. In 2019, Non-OPEC oil supply growth was revised down by 0.06 mbbl/d from 2.10 mbbl/d to an average 64.16 mbbl/d for the year. This was primarily due to a downward revision in Canada’s supply forecast.

Consequently, For Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the volume of crude oil production decreased by 751 trillion barrel per day (tbbl/d) to average 31.58 mbbl/d in December 2018. Globally, oil supply decreased by 0.35 mbbl/d to an average 100.02 mbbl/d in December 2018; translating to a total increase in global oil output of 2.83 mbbl/d YoY. The stake of OPEC crude oil in total global production had a declined from 0.6 per cent in November to a further 31.6 per cent in December.

Total production of crude oil in Nigeria in November 2018 dwindled by 8.17 mbbl which represent 13.12 per cent to average of 1.80 mbbl/d. This decline in the volume of production was as a result of a Bonny terminal which was shut down, leakages at the Odimodi area, on-goingmaintenance at Okoloma and Imor facilities.

Also activities in the following terminals (ABO, BRASS, AKPO, QUA IBOE, USAN, TULJA and ERHA) were disrupted due to maintenance and technical issues like: flooding, leakages and system upgrade.